In his April 20 op-ed, “Because the struggle shifts east, a race in opposition to time to arm Ukraine,” David Ignatius wrote that the Soviet encirclement of German forces at Stalingrad shall be Russia’s mannequin for defeating Ukrainian forces in Donbas, Ukraine. Extra seemingly, Moscow’s offensive will replicate Operation Citadel, Germany’s failed try and recuperate the strategic initiative after the Stalingrad debacle. The Germans have been stopped with large losses after lower than two weeks. Germany by no means recovered.
The Ukrainians have appreciation of seemingly Russian avenues of assault, and every day their defenses develop stronger. Donbas’s terrain is appropriate for protection. Its wooded ravines are dotted with villages that may be became strongpoints, with a number of small cities to anchor the protection, and it has a really restricted highway community. The Russians shall be largely road-bound in Donbas due to their wheeled autos, logistics necessities, prolonged provide traces and the muddy floor.
With as much as 80 tactical battalion teams and supporting components, maybe totaling 120,000 troops, Russian forces are too weak to efficiently encircle Donbas. Maybe most essential, the Russians merely lack the standard to efficiently conduct a battle of encirclement on the size envisioned. They’re poorly skilled, led, motivated, disciplined, provided and maintained. Their “military” is a combined pressure of mercenaries, conscripts, separatists, reservists and “contract” troopers wholly unprepared to struggle as a cohesive pressure. The generals have demonstrated a primary incompetence at mixed arms warfare and beautiful tactical ineptitude. In the event that they try and encircle Donbas, they seemingly will undergo a defeat of historic magnitude, simply as Germany did 79 years in the past.
Edward Grimes, Lexington, Va.
The author is a retired Protection Division Russian analyst.
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