NAIROBI & JOHANNESBURG, October 29 (IPS) – Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica yesterday—the strongest hurricane to impact the island on record since 1851—with expectations of tens of thousands of people being displaced and devastating damage to infrastructure. The tropical storm, slightly downgraded but nevertheless devastating, made landfall in Cuba today as UNEP’s newly released Adaptation Gap Report 2025: Running on Empty shows that the finance needed for developing countries to adapt to the climate crisis is falling far behind their needs.
The report estimates the adaptation finance needs of developing countries will range from between USD 310 billion to USD 365 billion per year by 2035.
But international public adaptation finance from developed to developing countries fell from USD 28 billion in 2022 to USD 26 billion in 2023. The data for 2024 and 2025 is not yet available.
“This leaves an adaptation finance gap of USD 284-339 billion per year—12 to 14 times as much as current flows,” the report released ahead of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, says.
However, adaptation finance plays a crucial role in countries and communities coping with the impacts of the climate crisis.
“Climate impacts are accelerating. Yet adaptation finance is not keeping pace, leaving the world’s most vulnerable exposed to rising seas, deadly storms, and searing heat,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the report. “Adaptation is not a cost—it is a lifeline. Closing the adaptation gap is how we protect lives, deliver climate justice, and build a safer, more sustainable world. Let us not waste another moment.”
Yet investments in climate action far outweigh the costs of inaction, the report points out. For instance, every USD 1 spent on coastal protection avoids the equivalent of USD 14 in damages; urban nature-based solutions reduce ambient temperatures by over 1°C on average, a significant improvement during the summer heat; and health-related capacity-building can further reduce symptoms of heat stress.
“Every person on this planet is living with the impacts of climate change: wildfires, heatwaves, desertification, floods, rising costs and more,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “As action to cut greenhouse gas emissions continues to lag, these impacts will only get worse, harming more people and causing significant economic damage.
The report finds:
- The adaptation finance needs of developing countries by 2035 are at least 12 times as much as current international public adaptation finance flows.
- The Glasgow Climate Pact goal of doubling 2019 USD 40 billion will be missed if current trends continue.
- The new collective quantified goal for climate finance (NCQG) is insufficient to meet developing countries’ adaptation finance needs in 2035.
- There is evidence of improving adaptation planning and implementation, but it is limited.
The Brazilian COP 30 Presidency has called for a global “effort”—mutirão global—to implement ambitious climate action in response to accelerating climate impacts. This includes bridging the finance gap and requiring both public and private finance to increase their contributions.
When asked at a press conference how Jamaica will fare in terms of adaptation, Anderson said, “The reality is that in the sort of low-income bracket of developing countries, no one is prepared, unless they are on very high ground and have no tendency for fires, landslides, floods, etc.
“The reality is also that those who are the small island developing states exposed to high winds, those who are with front towards the ocean, or those that have lots of human population in exposed areas are obviously the most at risk, and so when we are looking at countries like Jamaica or other small island developing states, clearly they stand to be very, very hard hit, as we are seeing; some are losing territory due to sea level rise, others are being hit again and again and again by these storms.”
She called for a broad discussion on adaptation at COP30.
While the report reflects on the opportunities presented by the Baku to Belém Roadmap to achieve 1.3 trillion, clear evidence of accelerating climate impacts, along with geopolitical priorities and increasing fiscal constraints, is making it more challenging to mobilize the necessary resources for climate mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage.
The adaptation report also notes that the New Collective Quantified Goal for climate finance, agreed at COP29, which called for developed nations to provide at least USD 300 billion for climate action in developing countries per year by 2035, would be insufficient to close the finance gap.
- Projected inflation rates extended to 2035 the estimated adaptation finance needed by developing countries goes from USD 310-365 billion per year in 2023 prices to USD 440-520 billion per year.
- The USD 300 billion target is for both mitigation and adaptation, meaning that adaptation would receive a lower share.
The report also warns that while the Baku to Belém Roadmap to raise USD 1.3 trillion by 2035 could make a huge difference, care must be taken not to increase the vulnerabilities of developing nations. Grants and concessional and non-debt-creating instruments are essential to avoid increasing indebtedness, which would make it harder for vulnerable countries to invest in adaptation.
The private sector is urged to contribute more to closing the gap. Private flows estimated at USD 5 billion per year could reach USD 50 billion—but this would require “targeted policy action and blended finance solutions, with concessionary public finance used to de-risk and scale-up private investment.”
IPS UN Bureau Report
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