Bitcoin (BTC) has once again slipped under the $120,000 price mark, retracing after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. As of the latest market data, BTC is trading around $115,557, down 2.5% in the past 24 hours and nearly 7% below its peak.
This price movement suggests that the asset is currently consolidating after its recent rally, leaving market participants watching closely for the next directional move.
Meanwhile, analysts are turning to on-chain data for signals on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. One such perspective comes from PelinayPA, a contributor to CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, who examined long-term holder (LTH) behavior using a set of profit and loss metrics.
The findings highlight that while profit-taking has begun, current selling levels remain below historical extremes seen in past bull market peaks.
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Tracking Long-Term Holder Signals
According to PelinayPA, the LTH analysis uses several indicators to measure the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the cost basis of long-term holders.
Profit and loss bands, ranging from 150% to 1,000% above cost basis, help determine when Bitcoin enters zones historically associated with a higher risk of market tops. When BTC approaches the +500% band, it has often coincided with heightened selling activity and eventual cycle peaks.
The analysis also incorporates a Spending Binary Indicator, which reflects the intensity of LTH selling, alongside “High Spending” signals that typically emerge near market tops and “Bottom Alerts” that occur during deep corrections.
Reviewing past cycles, PelinayPA pointed to 2017 and 2021, where bear market downturns followed heavy long-term holder selling, while the 2022–2023 bottom was marked by multiple loss realization alerts around the $15,000–$20,000 range.
Currently, Bitcoin sits within the 150%–350% profit band, leaving potential room for further growth, though the risk of a market top rises as the asset approaches the higher bands. The analyst noted that while green profit-taking bars are visible today, they remain well below the levels observed in earlier cycle peaks.
Bitcoin Market Outlook: Short, Mid, and Long Term
In outlining the potential scenarios, PelinayPA suggested that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the short term, as controlled profit-taking by long-term holders limits upside momentum.
However, if accumulation and broader demand continue, the price could advance into the $124,000–$178,000 range, corresponding to the higher profit thresholds on the LTH model.
For the mid-term outlook, extending into late 2025, the analyst cautioned that if long-term holder selling intensifies like in 2021, Bitcoin could be nearing a cycle top. In such a scenario, the asset might peak above $150,000 before the next major correction.
Looking ahead to 2026, the absence of new bottom alerts suggests that the market is still within the later stages of the ongoing bull cycle, rather than transitioning into a confirmed bear market.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
