The African Union (AU) suspended Madagascar’s membership on Wednesday following a coup to oust President Andry Rajoelina, which came after three weeks of Gen Z-led anti-government protests.
The coup leader, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, was sworn in as Madagascar’s president on Friday.
Randrianirina led the CAPSAT army unit that mutinied and joined the protesters before announcing the military had taken over the island nation.
Madagascar joins Sudan, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon, whose memberships of the African Union were also suspended following military coups.
In a statement issued after an emergency meeting on Madagascar, AU chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf noted that, “the rule of law must prevail over the rule of force” justifying the suspension as “grounded in law and dialogue.”
The move to suspend Madagascar from the AU has drawn criticisms from analysts like Fidel Amakye Owusu, a security analyst specializing in African affairs and geopolitics, who says the bloc’s protocol that regulates events relating to coups in Africa is reactionary in nature.
Ryan Cummings, director of analysis at Africa-focused risk management company Signal Risk, believes suspensions have become the AU’s sole mechanism in addressing “undemocratic acts.”
“I think the African Union’s suspension of Madagascar with respect to the unconstitutional power grab that has taken place speaks to the limited mechanisms that the Pan-African body has at its disposal to ensure that there is some form of accountability or repercussions,” Cummings told DW.
What do AU suspensions seek to achieve?
According to Cummings, the AU suspends nations to express its disapproval of unconstitutional changes of power among member states.
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS), a South Africa-based think tank, also sees the AU suspensions as an avenue to change the behaviors of defaulting member states and promote collective norms.
However, in most cases, the bloc’s actions do not necessarily prevent unconstitutional change of governments.
“Sanctions implemented against Sudan, Mali, and Burkina Faso have not prevented the repetition of coups there. Nor have they deterred military unlawful assumption of power in Guinea, Niger, Chad and Gabon,” the ISS said in a 2023 report.
Despite these punitive measures, several countries are yet to restore constitutional order or revert to democratic rule.
Beyond suspensions, what can the AU do?
The AU established the Conflict Resolution, Peace & Security organ to provide proactive measures to prevent the escalation of member states’ internal crises.
According to the AU, the decision-making organ “is a collective security and early warning arrangement intended to facilitate timely and efficient responses to conflict and crisis situations in Africa.”
Critics, however, say the regional bloc usually delays in carrying out this mandate.
“AU should have deployed preventive missions based on early warning indicators when the events occurred,” the ISS report noted.
“These could have been fact-checking missions to determine whether constitutional amendments could be considered, at least to show seriousness about all unconstitutional changes, not only military coups.”
But political risk analysts like Cummings believe that some delays by the African Union to intervene are borne out of the body’s respect for the sovereignty of its member states.
Cummings told DW that sovereignty is one of the AU’s key tenets and it will not intervene in any issue in the absence of a formal request.
“Even if it is invited to do so, it will weigh the consequences of its actions,” Cummings added. “If its actions could lead to more instability, it will probably just limit its intervention to dialogue.”
In the case of Madagascar, the AU in an October 12 statement urged dialogue among protesters, the now ousted Rajoelina-led government and security forces after the military lent its support to the Gen Z protests.
“The Chairperson of the Commission welcomes the government’s renewed commitment to dialogue and urges all Malagasy stakeholders, both civilian and military, to exercise calm and restraint,” the AU said in a statement.
According to Amakye Owusu, the AU can only issue these cautionary statements as a way of tackling instability across the region.
“It is a regional body, it is not a sovereign body and so it has limits to what it can really do. As it stands, the states are more powerful as individual units than the regional body,” he told DW.
Owusu suggested the intervention of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which Madagascar is a member. The regional economic bloc often plays a key role in mediation and stabilization.
However, Owusu believes that “there is little any group could do to change course in the short term.”
“Much will depend on the public. They started this and they could direct where it goes,” he said.
Edited by: Keith Walker
