The first round of the Polish presidential election was held on May 18.
In what was a very heated campaign, political parties and a number of newly established proxy organizations (e.g. Facebook pages run by fake political NGOs) in Poland together spent roughly €360,000 ($422,000) on Facebook advertising in the 30 days prior to the poll.
In Hungary, the ruling Fidesz party spent a similar amount of money on political ads during the same period, even though a general election there was, at the time, almost a year away.
Considering that the Hungarian media outlets under direct governmental control are delivering the same political message as Fidesz, this means that, technically speaking, the Hungarian government spent more than all Polish political parties put together — even though Poland’s population is four times bigger than that of Hungary.
Key to Fidesz’s political communication strategy
Paid social media content is a key element in Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s domestic political communication strategy. His Fidesz party pours enormous amounts of money into it — amounts that stand out even at the EU level.
Based on the analyses of the Hungarian think-tank Political Capital, Fidesz spent four times more than all opposition parties combined in the run-up to last year’s European Parliament election.
It is worth noting that campaigning in this election was not just restricted to Hungary but was, in fact, going on simultaneously in 27 countries across the bloc.
During this period, five of the top eight most promoted campaign videos on YouTube across the EU were paid for by Hungary’s Fidesz. Indeed, the top three in this ranking were all created, posted and paid for by Fidesz, making it a record spender on social media in the EU.
Huge social media budget
A more recent example also demonstrates that Orban is playing in a different league to other prime ministers in the region when it comes to the size of his social media budget.
As Czechia entered the final days of its general election campaign, spending on Facebook advertising peaked there, too. Nevertheless, it is dwarfed by the sums of money spent in Hungary.
Facebook’s political ad ban came into effect on October 1.
While all political parties in Czechia together spent less than €500,000 on Facebook advertising between August 23 and September 21, Fidesz and its satellites (proxies, directly controlled and aligned media) spent nearly €2.5 million during the same period.
In short, Fidesz and aligned organizations easily overspent political ad spending in entire countries — multiple times over.
‘A permanent governmental campaign’
“Citizens of Hungary live in a permanent governmental campaign. These numbers simply confirm that,” Robert Laszlo, an election expert at Political Capital, told DW.
“In this calendar year, 87% of political ad spending can be linked to the government (Fidesz as a party, its politicians, media under its full control, etc.) and only the rest to the opposition parties, independent media and NGOs,” he added.
Given that several social media platforms are introducing political ad bans, Lazlo said that Fidesz is losing “a very important pillar of its communication strategy.”
He also pointed out that the auto-detection algorithm of Google would appear to be imperfect because YouTube videos financed by Fidesz are still visible and are labelled as “Jobs and Education” or even “Arts and entertainment” even though Google’s political ad ban came into effect on September 22.
Fidesz was well prepared
But Fidesz was prepared for the introduction of the ad ban.
Earlier this year, Prime Minister Orban announced the launch of what he calls his “fight club” (Harcosok Klubja) initiative, an online recruiting process for activists that Orban calls “digital freedom fighters.”
The intention is that these activists will fight the “foreign-backed opposition” online by arguing in the Facebook comments section, sharing and forwarding content, etc.
Peter Magyar ahead in the polls
Orban is right in assuming that his Fidesz party is lagging behind its challenger, Peter Magyar, whose Facebook page has an outstanding organic reach and continues to grow.
While Magyar has not spent a cent on political ads since he set foot in politics in February 2024, his Facebook page has the highest organic reach every month, according to Zsolt Hanula, the social media expert at Telex, a Hungarian news website.
But Magyar is everywhere, not just virtually, but physically, too. After the EU elections in June 2024, he managed to integrate virtually the entire opposition into his party (Tisza), by attracting anti-Orban voters who previously voted for other opposition parties.
His party has also been topping the polls since late last year, according to independent pollsters such as Median.
A key element in Magyar’s success is his strong, almost constant physical presence in rural areas.
Magyar often visits Fidesz strongholds, highlighting local grievances, shaking hands and talking to people. These campaign trail events are a great way of mobilizing voters across the country.
Orban organized a huge campaign event in Budapest on September 20 with a view to converting his core supporters into “digital fighters.”
In short, it seems that while Orban’s strategy is mainly virtual and digital, there are challenges from the offline environment as well.
Will Orban’s new strategy work?
So, does Orban seek to answer the ban on political ads on social media with online activism by Fidesz supporters?
Clare O’Donoghue Velikic, a social media expert who spent nine years at Facebook’s Politics and Government marketing team, is quite skeptical.
“Building up an online network of fake grassroots organizations is the typical playbook of political actors like Orban. It’s called astroturfing,” she told DW. “At the end of each such Facebook profile, there might be a real person pushing buttons, but fake accounts can also be automated by social media bots to amplify electoral messages.”
O’Donoghue Velikic said that she assumes Fidesz will most likely use both approaches: “In fact, this entire online digital warfare from Fidesz can easily be a cover story. They can point to their activist gatherings to demonstrate the humans behind the screens, while an unprecedented amount of new fake accounts can be deployed in an automated way.”
O’Donoghue Velikic is also doubtful that the social media platforms’ political ad bans will be effective, because even if the system works perfectly, there are — as illustrated by Fidesz — still plenty of ways of getting around them.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
