On July 19th, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels signed the Doha Declaration of Principlesbrokered by Qatar. This was significant as it built on a peace deal the DRC and Rwanda signed in Washington on June 27. In it, the two rivals vowed to reach a peace deal no later than Monday, August 18.
Yet early this week, M23 representatives were nowhere to be found at the negotiating table in Qatar. In a statement on Sunday, the M23 movement claimed that only the full implementation of the Doha Declaration of Principles, including the release of prisoners, would allow them to participate in the next round of talks.
Currently, M23 largely controls the two eastern provinces of North and South Kivu.
To further complicate matters, new reports by Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International allege that M23 rebels killed nearly 140 people in July. The two reports also accuse M23 and other militia groups of committing widespread sexual abuses in eastern Congo.
Huge demands from both sides
Major demands by conflicting parties are jeopardizing the Democratic Republic of Congo’s chance at peace. A lack of trust seems to be hanging over peace negotiations brokered by multiple mediators.
“Nobody is meeting the demands of the other. One would have expected a great deal of flexibility on the Congolese side in trying to respond to the demands of the M23,” Nkere Ntanda, a political scientist from the University of Kinshasa, told DW.
The Kinshasa government is demanding total withdrawal of the AFC/M23 rebels and an end to external support, while the latter wants political and security guarantees before any disarmament. The opposing sides remain highly skeptical of each other.
“The demands from both sides reflect legitimate concerns. This is a normal situation in any kind of negotiation, but these demands also highlight how far apart the parties remain,” said Yvon Muya, a researcher at the School of Conflict Studies at Saint Paul University in Ottawa, Canada.
Kinshasa stresses the importance of implementing a monitoring mechanism to ensure compliance with commitments.
“We need a neutral mechanism on the ground to verify the withdrawal and disarmament, because peace will not come from unilateral surrender or total impunity, but from a well-monitored and well-balanced compromise between the two parties,” says Christian Lumu Lukusa, a notable political activist and youth leader in the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS), the party of Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi.
What happens if the peace deal process collapses?
The failure to reach an agreement could result in continued conflict and rebel advancements, say analysts. Currently, both sides accuse each other of violating the ceasefire. Reagen Miviri, a conflict analyst at the Congolese Institute Ebuteli, fears violence will escalate dramatically if a deal is not reached.
“The mediation needs to be proactive. Otherwise, there is a risk of escalation, especially since extremists on all sides have resumed their rhetoric,” Miviri told DW.
Various African leaders, including Nigeria’s former president, Olusegun Obasanjo, and Angolan President Joao Lourenco, have also attempted to mediate between the two sides. Yet no attempts by African leaders have seen success.
“Africa is very weak and does not have the power to exert pressure. This is why it is necessary to go where pressure can be used to make nations abide by the resolutions,” said political science expert Nkere Ntanda.
Countries with major economic power and influence are most likely to succeed in mediating a peace deal, says Nanda, referencing the US and Qatar.
Both have taken on roles in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, in part to pressure Rwanda, a close ally of the US and Qatar.
The DRC, the United Nations, and several Western governments have accused Rwanda of backing the M23 rebels, allegations Rwanda has repeatedly denied. Instead, Rwanda accuses the Congolese government of using Kigali as a scapegoat to cover up for the DRC’s governance and security challenges.
The conflict has killed thousands and forced hundreds of thousands of people from their homes, according to the UN.
While peace negotiations are ongoing between the Kinshasa government and the M23, other smaller rebel groups have continued attacks in eastern DR Congo. The M23 is merely one of around 100 or so armed groups fighting in the mineral-rich eastern Congo region.
Islamic State-backed ADF rebels killed at least 52 civilians in the Beni and Lubero areas of eastern DRC in recent days, UN and local officials reported.
Edited by: Sarah Hucal
