The political landscape in Jharkhand may be on the brink of a seismic shift, according to local media reports. Chief Minister Hemant Soren–led government appears headed for a new round of realignments, with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha — a key INDIA bloc partner — reportedly in talks with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The speculation was triggered after Soren and his wife, Kalpana Soren, recently met a top Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader in Delhi, according to media reports. Additionally, Jharkhand Governor Santosh Gangwar met with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi on Tuesday, further fueling speculation.
If the switch does happen, it would deliver another major blow to the INDIA bloc, already reeling from its defeat in the Bihar Assembly elections last month. Notably, the JMM had stayed out of the Bihar contest altogether, choosing to distance itself from the Mahagathbandhan in the state.
Also, at least eight of the 16 Congress MLAs are said to be planning to switch sides and join the NDA government that will be led by Soren and the BJP, according to a report in the Sunday Guardian. The BJP will not be joining the new alliance but will extend support from outside.
To avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law, at least 11 of the 16 Congress MLAs would have to break away from the party. The final decision on when to take a call on disqualification rests with the Speaker of the Assembly, which in this case is JMM’s Rabindra Nath Mahto.
How numbers stack up in the Jharkhand Assembly?
Jharkhand has 81 assembly seats and requires 41 for a majority. CM Soren, currently heads a coalition government. The JMM has 34 seats, supported by the Congress with 16, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 4, and the CPI-ML(L) with 2 legislators, giving the ruling alliance a total strength of 56.
If Soren decides to align with the NDA. The JMM’s 34 seats, combined with the BJP’s 21, the LJP’s 1, AJSU’s 1, JDU’s 1, and others’ 1, would take the tally to 58, comfortably crossing the majority mark.
Soren took oath as the 14th chief minister of Jharkhand on 28 November last year, after the JMM-led alliance stormed to power for the second time in a row, securing 56 seats in the 81-member assembly.
The JMM has previously aligned with the BJP. After the 2009 assembly elections, the BJP had extended support to JMM after which Shibu Soren, Hemant’s father, became the CM.
Congress party’s Jharkhand in-charge K Raju has denied reports of Congress MLAs leaving the party.
Why would Soren switch sides?
“No one from the Congress party is leaving. All the MLAs are united with the Congress,” Raju told the Sunday Guardian.
But why would Soren switch sides? Reports suggest that he is expecting a more favourable response from the Union government on development issues. Another consideration for Soren to join hands with the BJP is to avoid potential legal trouble in the coming days, given the pending cases against him related to alleged corruption that are being investigated by the Enforcement Directorate (ED). Soren had also been to jail during his previous term.
Some reports suggest that the Centre will confer the Bharat Ratna, India’s highest civilian award, on JMM founder and Hemant’s father, Shibu Soren, next year. Soren had passed away earlier this year in August.
Hindi media dial up intrigue
Vernacular media reports from Jharkhand have dialled up the intrigue, suggesting that an ‘initial understanding’ between the JMM and the BJP is already taking shape — and that the Delhi meeting was anything but a polite courtesy call.
A report in Navbharat Times, quoting unnamed sources, said that if Hemant Soren aligns with the NDA, it would mark “one of the most unexpected political twists in recent Indian history,” especially after the fierce, no-holds-barred rivalry the two parties displayed during the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign.
On 28 November, CM Soren marked one year of his second government by distributing appointment letters among 9,000 youth for recruitment to state departments.
Addressing a function at Morabadi Ground in Ranchi, he claimed that with the distribution of 9,000 appointment letters, his government has provided 16,000 jobs in the state departments in the last one year.
Key Takeaways
- The possibility of a coalition between JMM and BJP could reshape Jharkhand’s political scene.
- Internal party dynamics within Congress might lead to significant defections.
- Soren’s motivations may include seeking favorable responses from the Union government and legal protection.
