The next round of truce talks between Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Kabul is scheduled to take place in Istanbul on November 6. Following intense border clashes last month , both sides are attempting to reach a peace agreement with the mediation of Turkey and Qatar.
A deadly cross-border conflict erupted after the Taliban blamed Pakistan for explosions in the Afghan capital, Kabul, on October 9. The Taliban said the Pakistani army had bombed several targets, including inside the city.
More than 70 people were killed and hundreds injured in the conflict between the Taliban fighters and the Pakistani military by the time Turkey and Qatar brokered a ceasefire.
Last week, Turkey said a monitoring mechanism would be set up to secure peace and punish violations of the agreement.
“However, many technical questions remain unanswered,” said Omar Samad, an expert at the New America Foundation think tank in Washington. Samad served as Afghan ambassador to Canada and France from 2004 to 2011.
“Who should monitor compliance with the ceasefire: a third country or an international organization? The deep mistrust between Kabul and Islamabad, historical border conflicts, and differing definitions of terrorism further complicate the talks,” he told DW.
Pakistani Taliban — major stumbling block
Relations between the former allies, who share a 2,600-kilometer (1,600-mile) border, have deteriorated significantly in recent years.
Islamabad accuses Kabul of providing protection to the militant group Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – an offshoot of the Taliban in Pakistan. The Taliban rulers in Kabul deny this.
Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistanin 2021, the number of attacks and assaults in Pakistan has increased. In order to put pressure on the Taliban rulers, Pakistan has been conducting cross-border air strikes on suspected TTP hideouts in eastern Afghanistan since last year.
At the end of December 2024, at least 46 people, including women and children, were killed in attacks with fighter jets and drones, according to the Taliban.
“If the talks fail, there is a risk of all-out war between the two countries,” warned Afghan political analyst Ahmad Saeed, adding that the TTP have “pledged allegiance to the Taliban leader in Afghanistan and pursue a common ideology.”
The Taliban regime, however, insists that the TTP fighters are opponents of the Pakistani government and have nothing to do with them.
Taliban regime looks for new friends
In August 2021, Pakistan’s political leadership initially welcomed the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan. They saw the Taliban as a potential strategic ally in the region. But the euphoria did not last long.
“Pakistan hoped to assert its influence after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan,” Saeed said.
“The Taliban are striving for sovereignty and recognition by other countries and powers in the region, such as India. And they will not label the TTP, whose fighters fought against the Americans and the Republic of Afghanistan, as terrorists,” he added.
Civilians caught in the middle
Meanwhile, pressure on Afghans in Pakistan has increased dramatically. Police raids on businesses run by Afghans and apartments rented by them have increased, not only in the border regions, but also in Islamabad and other major cities.
“We are in hiding and our families are fragmented, unable to stay in one place due to the fear of arrest and police violence. Our businesses have come to a standstill, our children have dropped out of school, and we have no time to consider our next steps,” an Afghan citizen who wished to stay anonymous told DW.
Many Afghans in Pakistan are afraid of consequences like their leases not being renewed or problems arising with the visa process, which is already expensive, uncertain, and often lengthy.
The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been closed for more than two weeks and is only being opened to deport Afghan migrants. According to Taliban authorities, 8,000 Afghan migrants were deported to Kandahar province via the Spin Boldak border crossing over the weekend.
With reporting by Ahmad Waheed Ahmady.
This article was translated from German.
