The Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru came out on top in a local Welsh parliament by-election on Thursday, defeating the far-right populist Reform UK party and the defending Labour Party.
The election in the constituency of Caerphilly, just outside the Welsh capital Cardiff, had been seen as a bellwether for more general political trends across the United Kingdom, where Reform is currently ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party in the national polls.
In Wales, Reform, led nationally by the former Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, had hoped to win its first seat in the devolved Welsh parliament, known as the Senedd, and had pledged to “throw everything” at its campaign.
And the party did indeed increase its vote from fewer than 500 four years ago to 12,113 – well ahead of Labour on 3,713 (down from 13,289) but behind Plaid Cymru on 15,961.
“Tonight’s result shows what’s possible when people come together to back practical solutions and protect what matters most,” said Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle after the vote, which attracted a relatively high turnout of over 50%.
“We’ve beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026,” he continued, referring to the next full Welsh parliamentary elections and recent research by openDemocracy which showed that Reform has received almost 5 million pounds (€5.7 million, €6.6 million) from wealthy donors since 2023. “Caerphilly has shown the way — now Wales must follow.”
What is Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party?
Plaid Cymru — which is Welsh for “Party of Wales” — is a center-left, social democratic party which fundamentally advocates Welsh independence from the United Kingdom, albeit not immediately, nor at any cost.
Rather, party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth this month proposed a “standing commission” to discuss the idea of independence should Plaid win both the 2026 and 2030 elections to the Senedd — the devolved Welsh parliament established in 1999.
“Tonight, the people of Caerphilly have spoken loud and clear; they’ve chosen hope over division, progress over the tired status quo, and backed Plaid Cymru’s positive, pro-Wales vision,” Ap Iorwerth said after Thursday’s by-election victory.
“This result shows that Plaid is no longer just an alternative,” he continued. “We are now the real choice for Wales, the only party able to stop billionaire-backed Reform and offering a better future that works for everyone.”
UK politics: what is a by-election?
By-elections, called when an elected lawmaker vacates their seat during a parliamentary term, are often seen by voters as an opportunity to express discontent with a governing party in the national Westminster parliament in London— currently the Labour Party following the 2024 UK general election.
But the third-place finish in Caerphilly will be particularly bitter for Labour, given it had held the traditionally working-class seat in the former mining region since the establishment of the Senedd in 1999.
Indeed, Caerphilly had also elected a Labour member of parliament to Westminster at every election since 1918.
Reform UK wants to ‘form government’ in Wales
Reform, on the other hand, claimed that their defeat was anything but a disaster and insisted that the party was on the right track ahead of next year’s full Senedd elections.
“I think, next May, we’re going to form a Reform government,” predicted candidate Llyr Powell.
“Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there’s one party that’s surging here, and you can see from tonight’s result that’s Reform UK. I’m very excited for what we’re building here in Wales.”
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan, the head of the Welsh government and the most senior politician in the Wales, said: “This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally.”
She added: “Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough.
“We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.”
Edited by: Saim Dušan Inayatullah
