With tensions rising between China and Japan, the Beijing-Washington relationship confrontational, and North Korea something of a wild card in the worsening geopolitical and security situation in Northeast Asia, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is putting himself forward as a peacemaker.
Lee told reporters in Seoul last week that he would “do everything possible to support US-North Korea talks.”
The same day, he offered to mediate between Beijing and Tokyo to ease tensions that have risen over the issue of Taiwan and has made it clear that he intends to restore communication channels with Pyongyang in order to achieve “peaceful coexistence.”
Lee, who has only been in office since June, has offered to act as a mediator in the various bilateral and multilateral disputes that threaten to boil over into outright conflict.
Some analysts say that despite his best intentions, however, the rifts appear to be so deep and intractable that it would be difficult for any statesman to bring the rival sides together.
“It has been a kind of tradition for progressive parties in South Korea to try to be the broker for peace in tense situations in the region, going back to the time of Kim Dae-jung,” said Choo Jae-woo, a professor of foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul.
‘Sunshine Policy’ to North Korea
Kim Dae-jung served as South Korea’s president between 1998 and 2003 and was famous for the “Sunshine Policy” towards North Korea. That effort at detente earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000, although Choo says much has changed since.
President Moon Jae-in came close to achieving a breakthrough in relations between the US and North Korea, Choo points out, helping to set up historic in-person meetings between Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore and Hanoi during the US leader’s first term in office. The effort ultimately failed.
“The situation is very different today, and that is why I am skeptical,” said Choo.
“Detente between the US and North Korea is almost impossible mainly because the issue of denuclearization is no longer on the agenda for North Korea.”
“Kim has flat out stated that he will not negotiate away his nuclear weapons for the vague promise of security,” Choo told DW, adding that “he no longer cares about sanctions because he has formed a security and trade alliance with Russia.”
Equally, it will be extremely difficult for Lee to insert himself in the debate over the future of Taiwan as South Korea is geographically more distant from the self-ruling island, which Beijing sees as a renegade province and has vowed to “reunite” it with the mainland, by force if necessary.
There is also a degree of political and public resistance to South Korea becoming embroiled in what could quickly spiral into a military confrontation, particularly as the South already has a serious threat on its northern border.
Lee aims to avoid ‘hot war’
Despite the obvious challenges, President Lee appears to be intent on pushing ahead with efforts to ensure the deepening “cold war” in Northeast Asia does not turn hot.
Lee’s most immediate concern appears to be North Korea, an issue he addressed in a roundtable interview with journalists earlier this month. Asked about his plans to act as a “pacemaker” in moving the Washington-Pyongyang alliance forward, Lee was optimistic.
“North Korea sees regime preservation as its most critical goal, and it believes the US — not South Korea — is the key player capable of guaranteeing that,” The Korea Herald quoted Lee as saying.
“But in reality, the direct stakeholders in the situation on the Korean Peninsula are South and North Korea, unfortunately. So we can’t just stand by and do nothing.”
Trump “has a strong will for peace,” he said, emphasizing the need for communication, cooperation and negotiation between North Korea and the US.
“We will do our best to support the necessary conditions for North Korea-US dialogue in every way we can,” he said.
Simply expressing that ambition could be helpful in moving the relationship forward, he suggested. He is also considering scaling back joint US-South Korean military exercises as a confidence-building measure.
Lee has also addressed the relationship between China and Japan, which has become increasingly fraught in the weeks since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in the Diet that any Chinese aggression against Taiwan would inevitably be a matter of national security for Japan.
‘Role of mediator’
Lee said Seoul would not take sides in the dispute and that his administration would try to “play the role of mediator” in order to ease the tensions, which have seen heated diplomatic exchanges and ramped up activity by the Chinese military in areas close to Japan.
That has included operations by an aircraft carrier fleet off Japan and Chinese fighters locking their missile radar systems onto Japanese aircraft.
“Lee is trying to be more proactive in regional diplomacy and I think that reflects the pragmatism of this current administration, but most people feel that the Taiwan issue is not one that South Korea should be involved in,” said Lim Eun-jung, a professor of international studies at Kongju National University.
“Nobody is against Lee trying to play this role and I think everyone agrees that it is necessary and important, but we realize that it is going to be very difficult to actually achieve anything,” she said.
“Lee wants South Korea to be a ‘good global citizen’ and a partner to everyone and an enemy to no one,” she added.
“But in reality, getting these countries to agree is too much to expect.”
Edited by: Keith Walker
