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President Biden and Vladimir Putin are every attempting to form the narrative of what’s taking place in Ukraine and get contained in the heads of a worldwide viewers — and one another — to achieve the higher hand in an info battle as a potential prelude to an actual one.
Why it issues: U.S. officers say Putin is stoking disinformation with a purpose to blame Ukraine if Russia invades. The White Home is attempting to announce Putin’s performs earlier than he runs them — a novel and dangerous technique they hope would possibly stave off an invasion, or at the very least assist unify the worldwide group towards it.
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Biden mentioned Friday: “We’re calling out Russia’s plans loudly and repeatedly, not as a result of we would like a battle, however … to take away any motive that Russia could give to justify invading Ukraine.”
The backstory: U.S. officers have been releasing intelligence for weeks about alleged Russian plans to construct a pretext for battle. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken took that to a brand new stage on Wednesday by offering a step-by-step description of how the U.S. expects an invasion to unfold.
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That set the stage for Biden’s exceptional deal with on Friday, during which he mentioned he was “satisfied” Putin had determined to launch a full-scale invasion to focus on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
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Moscow has alternated between mocking the dire predictions from Washington — notably after an invasion goal date floated by U.S. officers got here and went — and condemning them as “aggression” and “info warfare” towards Russia. Putin claims the U.S. is attempting to bait him into invading.
Between the strains: Russia has appeared to observe the playbook Blinken laid out, as a part of Moscow’s personal efforts to form the narrative across the potential battle.
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Putin’s spokesman claimed Ukraine was planning a serious navy offensive (although 150,000 Russian troops are massed on its borders). Russian officers and state media circulated purported proof to again Putin’s current declare {that a} “genocide” is happening in japanese Ukraine.
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Russian-backed separatists within the Donbas area started shelling Ukrainian-held territory whereas additionally saying an evacuation of civilians as a result of purported risk from Ukraine.
Information: Mapbox/OSCE as of Feb. 14, 2022; Map: Will Chase/Axios
Stories on Friday {that a} separatist police chief’s automobile was bombed chimed with Blinken’s warning that Russia would fabricate “terrorist assaults” and blame Ukraine.
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All of this got here after a exceptional head faux from Putin earlier within the week. In televised conferences with prime officers, he introduced Russia would pull troops again from the border and concentrate on diplomacy. U.S. officers say that hasn’t occurred.
Contained in the technique: If Putin’s media technique is to sow confusion, Biden’s is to talk with an nearly jarring readability about what he expects from Russia.
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The Biden administration has been flooding the airwaves. State Division officers did 16 interviews final Tuesday alone in U.S., Ukrainian and European media. Blinken has been on TV nearly regularly.
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Biden made two televised addresses within the span of 4 days, and used the primary to organize Individuals for greater power costs within the occasion of battle. The administration seems to have taken a lesson from Afghanistan, the place it did not anticipate or put together the general public for a swift Taliban takeover.
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Putin, in the meantime, used a joint look with Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko on Friday to organize Russians for sanctions, which he claimed could be utilized whether or not there was a battle in Ukraine or not. On Saturday, he personally oversaw large nuclear drills.
The massive image: The world was caught without warning when Putin moved into Crimea in 2014 and Georgia in 2008. Nobody will probably be shocked if he invades Ukraine once more.
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Analysts have debated whether or not Washington’s technique would make Putin extra more likely to again off, or doubtlessly make it more durable for him to again down, since something wanting battle might now be considered as a victory for the West.
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