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As a consequence of its climate circumstances and huge territory, Turkey appears set to turn out to be a renewables powerhouse ultimately. Its proximity to energy-hungry Europe is a further strategic benefit in terms of monetizing this potential.
“Whole put in capability within the nation is 7.8 gigawatt in photo voltaic and 10.7 gigawatt in wind. Earlier than the tip of the 12 months, the Turkish Ministry of Vitality needs to conclude tenders of further 3 GW renewable vitality tasks,” mentioned Eser Ozdil, a nonresident fellow on the Atlantic Council in Turkey.
In latest months, the nation has targeted mainly on roof PV installations. It had historically invested in hydropower and to a lesser extent in geothermal know-how.
“The nation has achieved a formidable improve in renewable vitality technology capability, reaching 44% [of the overall mix] in 2020. Hydropower is probably the most outstanding renewable vitality supply, accounting for 20% of electrical energy manufacturing,” an EU official confirmed to DW.
Nonetheless, its elevated vitality demand is hindering buying and selling choices, not less than within the brief time period, making Turkey’s exports appropriate for small markets. The nation targets the EU inexperienced hydrogen market and South Jap Europe (SEE) vitality markets, primarily within the Balkans.
Photo voltaic vitality is to play an rising function in Turkey’s vitality combine
Obstacles
Hydropower is usually a blessing, however it could shortly flip right into a curse. Like neighboring nations, the nation suffers from droughts.
“Final 12 months, droughts had a really robust influence on Turkey, which needed to swap to fuel. Fuel consumption went from 48 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to over 60 bcm in 2021 because of this,” mentioned Aura Sabadus, a journalist at ICIS, a world vitality and petrochemicals information and information supplier. The Black Sea vitality market professional added that hydro ranges had improved solely marginally since.
Specialists argue that the nation wants further baseload capability to extend investments in renewables, because the electrical energy grid may in any other case not be steady. The federal government has invested in fuel infrastructure and a brand new nuclear energy station. Difficulties stay, although.
“It’s unclear the best way to repair the electrical energy market till the Akkuyu nuclear energy plant is commissioned. There might be delays in gentle of the present geopolitical scenario. A Russian firm is constructing it,” mentioned Charles Ellinas, senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.
Russia may have an incentive to push the power’s inauguration previous its 2023 deadline.
Imports of fuel at spot costs shall be equally restricted over the approaching months: Costs will stay excessive because the European Union will purchase as a lot non-Russian fuel as attainable.
Final 12 months, Turkey renewed its fuel contracts with Russia. They had been linked to the Dutch fuel buying and selling level TTF, Ellinas defined. EU costs are hovering, and Russian fuel may also be dearer. “With the economic system being in such dire straits, the price of imports is a drain on Turkey’s monetary stability,” the professional informed DW.
Regardless of Turkey logging 11% progress in 2021, economists count on a tumultuous 12 months for the nation: The native foreign money has crashed, inflation is rising, and the Russian warfare on Ukraine is taking a toll on tourism.
Coordinated effort?
Turkey is presently taking part in a mediating function within the Russia-Ukraine battle. The present international monetary and geopolitical scenario has additionally facilitated cooperation with different nations akin to Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and extra just lately Greece.
“Thus far, consultants have seen Turkey making an attempt to seize vitality by confrontation slightly than collaboration,” Ellinas mentioned. However the latest cordial assembly between the Turkish president and the Greek prime minister is seen as an encouraging growth. “Each nations want to enhance their economies in any case.”
Electrical energy interconnections may promote additional dialogue. The primary interconnection between Cyprus and Crete is an instance of this shift within the area.
Extra alternatives
Cross-border electrical energy buying and selling capability has been minimal. Based on Sabadus, electrical energy capability from Turkey to the EU stood at 500 MW-600 MW in 2015.
“Interconnection capacities ought to be prolonged significantly,” mentioned the Atlantic Council’s Eser Ozdil.
Turkish corporations are investing within the Balkans, together with Kosovo and Albania. The principle focus is on fuel markets, as Turkey can financial institution on its 4 (quickly 5) LNG terminals, normally idle in spring and summer time. Moreover, Turkish and Balkan corporations may develop joint electrical energy tasks, in response to Ozdil.
It is but unclear to what extent Turkey will have the ability to open its fuel pipeline system for hydrogen transport
Hydrogen in focus
Inexperienced hydrogen is a vital pillar of EU vitality plans. “The Europeans might want to import one-third of their hydrogen demand from non-EU nations. They didn’t point out Turkey within the EU technique,” mentioned Sabadus.
“It might be an amazing alternative for the 2 sides to work collectively. There might be assist from each Turkey and SEE to develop the hydrogen sector and assist repurpose the area’s fuel grid,” he famous.
Turkey has a strategic benefit resulting from its infrastructure, together with ports and the Southern Fuel Hall. It examined mixing hydrogen within the fuel grid in 2021, and the Turkish Ministry of Vitality is presently engaged on its hydrogen technique. Native consultants counsel reaching a minimal of 10% hydrogen transport in fuel pipelines by 2025-2030.
Favorable EU financing may assist Turkey prioritize funding in electrical energy and hydrogen.
“It takes political urge for food, the EU has to carry out an olive department to Turkey, and each have to show the web page,” mentioned Sabadus, explaining that higher ties would characterize a win-win scenario. She’s cautious, although.
“Earlier than saying that higher ties are very well underway, I must see interconnection agreements between Turkey and Bulgaria, but in addition between Turkey and Greece. Russia stays Turkey’s largest vitality provider.”
Edited by: Hardy Graupner
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