Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the namesake and son of the Philippines’ late dictator, appears to be like nearly sure to have secured a landslide victory in presidential elections that occurred on Monday.
With about 98% of the eligible ballots counted in an unofficial tally, Marcos Jr. secured almost 31 million votes, double that of his fundamental challenger, the present Vice President Leni Robredo.
An official result’s anticipated across the finish of the month.
Questions now flip as to if a Marcos Jr. presidency will mend a few of the relations that frayed between the EU and the Philippines beneath Rodrigo Duterte, the outgoing president.
In 2017, Duterte referred to EU officers as “silly European Union guys” and threatened to reject all European help, regardless of the EU being one of many Philippines’ largest suppliers of improvement help.
Most controversial has been Duterte’s “struggle on medication,” by which greater than 12,000 folks have died, a couple of fifth from extrajudicial killings by the authorities, based on Human Rights Watch. Brussels has taken a robust stance in opposition to the drug struggle, and talks over commerce pacts and bilateral working teams stalled in 2017.
Nonetheless, there have been indicators of rapprochement final yr. Throughout a speech in February 2021, Duterte mentioned that “the Philippines and the EU share a deep respect for democracy and the rule of regulation.”
Final yr additionally noticed the primary bilateral conferences on financial cooperation and good governance that have been alleged to happen after the EU-Philippine Partnership and Cooperation Settlement (PCA) got here into impact in 2018. Each side held a joint committee to evaluate the implementation of the PCA in Manila on April 26.
A recent begin?
Shada Islam, an impartial EU analyst and commentator, reckons this is not the election final result that EU policymakers favored. Most have been in all probability hoping for a victory by Robredo, a champion of human rights.
“However relations with the Philippines are an necessary a part of the EU’s hopes for stronger engagement within the Indo-Pacific, and Brussels will do its greatest to enhance the EU’s tetchy relationship with Manila beneath the brand new president,” Islam mentioned.
But, nobody is anticipating any fast enhancements, as EU officers assess the total influence of Marcos’ victory, she added.
Marcos Jr., 64, is the son of former President Ferdinand Marcos, who dominated the nation for many years beneath a brutal authoritarian regime.
Marcos Sr., together with spouse Imelda and their retinue, are believed to have plundered round €9.4 billion ($9.9 billion) from the state earlier than being ousted in 1986 by a folks’s revolt.
Marcos Jr. hardly ever spoke to the media throughout his marketing campaign and revealed little about his coverage intentions. He mentioned he would not be mushy on crime however most commentators count on him to mood the brutality of Duterte’s drug struggle, not least as a result of there may be now the distinct risk of the Worldwide Felony Courtroom prosecuting these concerned.
“I do not see vital adjustments when it comes to notion of Philippine management,” mentioned Joshua Bernard Espeña, senior international safety analyst on the California-based Analyzing Struggle and a commentator on Philippine overseas coverage.
Human rights and Philippines’ place in EU’s GSP+ scheme
As a result of the EU prioritizes problems with the rule of regulation and human rights in its partnership with the Philippines, Marcos Jr. and Sara Duterte, the outgoing president’s daughter, who is ready to win the vice-presidency, will inherit the historic and political “baggage” from Duterte, Espeña added.
“Whereas it’s mentioned that the sins of the daddy shouldn’t be visited upon the son, the historic revisionism of epic proportions spun throughout the election of Marcos shouldn’t cowl up the excellent human rights issues of the day,” mentioned Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division.
“The EU can’t simply roll over on its authentic rights issues as a result of Sara Duterte will nonetheless be round, and Marcos the daddy oversaw critical rights abuses throughout martial regulation that he was by no means held accountable for,” he added.
“European Union overseas coverage wants to obviously embody upholding human rights and nobody ought to neglect that there’s a pending Worldwide Felony Courtroom investigation that’s not topic to the whims of the ahistorical Philippines voters.”
Equally consequential for Manila could be its place within the EU’s GSP+ preferential commerce scheme, which grants zero-tariff commerce for hundreds of products. It comes up for evaluate in 2024.
“Manila has to current a reputable plan of motion on the strong and efficient implementation of over 30 worldwide conventions on human and labor rights, good governance and the surroundings with clear deadlines, by 2024,” Heidi Hautala, vp of the European Parliament, instructed DW.
“Whether it is in breach of those conventions till the time it reapplies to the scheme, the EU will be unable to proceed granting the GSP+ standing to the nation,” she added. “And it goes with out saying that every of the over 30 conventions must be ratified.”
Resolution within the EU’s arms
The EU is the Philippines’ fourth-largest buying and selling associate, and the biggest overseas investor within the Southeast Asian nation, with overseas direct funding shares price round €14 billion as of 2020, based on EU information. Bilateral commerce in items was price €12.2 billion that yr.
“I’m cautiously optimistic that the EU can discover an settlement with Manila based on mutual pursuits,” Espeña added.
Negotiations for an EU-Philippines commerce and funding settlement have been launched in December 2015 however stalled after Duterte got here to workplace. Analysts say momentum for restarting these talks might now start once more as Duterte leaves workplace and because the EU final yr restarted FTA talks with Thailand, one other Southeast Asian state with a questionable human rights report.
There’s additionally necessity. The Philippines final yr took over the function of ASEAN coordinator for Dialogue Relations with the EU, which it should hold till 2024, which means Manila is the primary level of name for Brussels in its dealings with the Southeast Asian bloc.
“It’s for the EU to determine whether or not or not the Philippines is a direly wanted associate in a world that’s presently decoupling from each other,” mentioned Espeña.
Edited by: Srinivas Mazumdaru